Brazil’s Corrugated Cardboard Industry Shows Slowdown Ahead of Black Friday

With Black Friday just days away, scheduled for November 28th, part of the industry observed a slower pace than expected for the period. In the cardboard packaging segment, the positive data released by Empapel contrasts with a market that is operating with greater caution and showing signs of slowdown.

The entity's Monthly Statistical Bulletin indicated that the Brazilian Corrugated Cardboard Index (IBPO) registered a 3.0% growth in September, compared to the same period last year, reaching 163.4 points – the highest level in the historical series for the month. Shipments of boxes, sheets, and accessories also reached a record high, totaling 367,000 tons. Even so, the volume per working day fell by 4.9%, influenced by the difference in the number of working days between 2024 and 2025.

Despite the high indicators, companies in the sector have noticed a less dynamic market movement. Traditionally seen as a barometer of economic activity, the segment usually anticipates changes in consumption. In 2025, however, this trend showed different behavior. According to the co-CEO of the Mazurky Group, Eduardo Mazurkyewistz, the period leading up to Black Friday did not show the expected growth. “We observed the opposite movement within our operation. There is a noticeable slowdown in consumption. This directly impacts the pace of production,” he stated.

Mazurkyewistz explained that, historically, the industry projects an increase of up to 15% in production on the eve of Black Friday. This year, however, factors such as high interest rates, economic instability, and changes in purchasing and stockpiling patterns have influenced a more conservative stance from companies. “Business owners need to decide long before demand appears: how much to produce, how much to stock, and how much to risk. With high interest rates and an uncertain economic scenario, we see a much more cautious approach,” he assessed.

With the sector accumulating a 0.5% contraction this year, the moment requiring the most attention coincides precisely with the period when retailers typically intensify preparations for Black Friday and Christmas. "If we're selling well, it's because someone is producing, packaging, and putting goods on the market. This year, however, we've noticed that the pace hasn't kept up with expectations," the executive emphasized.

For the Mazurky Group, market behavior at the beginning of 2026 will be crucial in assessing whether the observed slowdown is temporary or indicates a more prolonged cycle of reduced activity. "We remain attentive, adjusting strategies and awaiting clearer signals from the economy," they concluded.