China Corrugated Paper Prices Decline in Early April, Show Late-Month Recovery: SunSirs

Corrugated paper prices in China declined during the early part of April before stabilizing and rebounding slightly toward the end of the month, according to data released by SunSirs.

Monitoring data showed that the average ex-factory price for 140g corrugated base paper reached 2,698 RMB per ton as of April 28, marking a 4.19% decrease compared with levels at the beginning of the month.

The price trend was influenced by a combination of cost, supply, and demand factors. On the cost side, waste paper prices in Zhejiang initially increased due to disruptions in collection caused by heavy rainfall in southern China. This led to reduced selling by collection stations and temporary price increases. By late April, however, rising inventories at paper mills prompted efforts to lower procurement costs, resulting in a stabilization of waste paper prices. As of April 28, Grade A yellow cardboard waste paper averaged 1,607 RMB per ton, up 1.71% from the beginning of the month.

Supply dynamics also weighed on pricing. High operating rates at corrugated paper mills in early and mid-April ensured ample market supply, creating an imbalance with demand and prompting mills to offer price concessions. Toward the end of the month, announcements of maintenance shutdowns by major producers tightened supply expectations and contributed to the halt in price declines.

Demand remained subdued throughout April, which is traditionally a low season for the packaging sector. Orders from e-commerce, FMCG, and food and beverage sectors showed limited growth, while export demand was affected by geopolitical and economic uncertainties. Downstream box manufacturers maintained cautious procurement strategies, focusing on short-term needs rather than stockpiling.

Looking ahead, SunSirs analysts expect corrugated paper prices to fluctuate within a narrow range with a slight upward trend, supported by pre-holiday restocking ahead of the May Day holiday and ongoing maintenance-related supply constraints.