US Tariffs to Reshape Global Containerboard Trade Favoring Canada and Brazil

A new Q3 2025 report forecasts significant shifts in global containerboard trade due to US tariffs on pulp and paper. The tariffs favor low-cost, lower-tariff countries such as Canada and Brazil, while disadvantaging European and Chinese exporters who face higher costs and 15% tariffs. Containerboard demand is expected to grow modestly at 0.53% CAGR through mid-2027, with production rebounding at 2.82% CAGR as inventories replenish. However, capacity cuts might temper growth. Prices are forecast to remain steady in the near term, followed by increases of approximately $40 per metric ton in late 2026 and $50 in 2027 due to improving market fundamentals and inflation. The US aims to retain more domestic supply, realigning its trade partnerships. Ongoing tariff policy uncertainty suggests volatile trade flows. Winners include South American producers, Canadian mills under USMCA, and US softwood suppliers; losers are European and Chinese producers facing higher costs and restricted market access.