Fitch Keeps 2025 Outlook for Latin American Pulp and Paper Sector at Neutral, with BEKP Prices Seen at USD 600/t

Fitch Ratings’ “Latin America Pulp and Paper Outlook 2025” maintains a neutral sector view, projecting average bleached eucalyptus kraft pulp (BEKP) prices to China of around USD 600 per tonne in 2025, slightly below 2024’s average and on the lower end of the cost curve as new capacity weighs on the first half before a gradual price recovery later in the year. The report notes that Latin American producers retain a structural cost advantage thanks to large-scale, integrated forestry assets and modern mills, supporting resilient cash generation despite pulp price volatility and higher regional energy and fibre costs. Fitch expects leverage metrics at key issuers such as Arauco and Klabin to improve or remain manageable as large capex cycles taper, with disciplined investment, export-oriented business models and still-solid demand for packaging grades underpinning the stable credit profile for the sector.​