Retail Projections Signal Moderate Growth, Impacting Paper Packaging Demand in Brazil

The Brazilian Institute for Retail Studies (IBEVAR) and FIA Business School released projections for retail performance in January 2026, indicating moderate sales growth. According to the survey, restricted retail is expected to register an increase of 0.06%, while expanded retail is expected to grow by 0.77% compared to the previous month.

The analysis is based on data from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey (PMC) of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), and presents distinct variations between segments. In the restricted retail sector, projections indicate growth in Food and Beverages (1.35%), Clothing and Accessories (0.59%), Cosmetics and Personal Care (1.08%), and Furniture (0.37%). On the other hand, the Home Appliances segment is expected to show an estimated contraction of -1.90%.

The broader retail sector, which includes sectors such as automobiles and construction materials, is expected to register average growth of 0.77%, supported by expectations of a gradual recovery in the construction industry and a rebound in vehicle sales.

The study also indicated that the accumulated variation for the year could reach approximately 1.42%, reflecting a scenario of consumption adaptation, favored by the slowdown in inflation and the reorganization of family budgets.

According to Claudio Felisoni, president of IBEVAR and professor at FIA Business School, "In an uncertain economic scenario, innovative and adaptive strategies will be crucial for retailers." He added, "It is vital that merchants develop consumer-centric approaches and adapt quickly to market fluctuations to capture growth opportunities."

Reflections on the paper packaging industry

The projected performance for retail has a direct impact on the supply chain, especially the paper packaging industry, which is widely used by the food, cosmetics, fashion, and consumer goods sectors in general.

According to a report by Mordor Intelligence, the Brazilian packaging market is expected to reach approximately US$40.12 billion in 2026, driven by the expansion of e-commerce and the search for more sustainable solutions, such as paper and cardboard packaging.

Specifically regarding paper packaging, studies by Grand View Research indicated that the segment maintains a consistent growth outlook in the coming years, with annual rates exceeding 5%, supported by the replacement of plastic packaging and increased logistics demand.

An analysis by Research and Markets also pointed out that public policies aimed at reducing the use of plastic and strengthening circular economy practices have favored the adoption of paper-based packaging, especially in retail and e-commerce .

SCENARIO FOR 2026

With projections of moderate growth in retail, the paper packaging industry should operate in an environment of tight demand, but sustained by essential consumer sectors. The combination of a gradual recovery in sales, the expansion of e-commerce, and environmental requirements tends to maintain paper and cardboard as strategic inputs for the production chain in the coming years.